On March 5, Theresa May launched a consultation on revisions to its National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). This included a much-anticipated reference to a standard way to calculate local housing needs. Whilst many in the south-east of the country are worried about large increases in housing numbers, large swathes of the north face the opposite problem, particularly Cumbria.

Underdelivering on housing could significantly hamper the region’s economic growth, with far-reaching consequences for infrastructure, education, and jobs growth. The burden, therefore, falls on the local authorities supported by the Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership to jointly demonstrate the evidence for higher levels of housing growth than the Government is imposing.

The Cumbrian authorities of Allerdale, Barrow-in-Furness, Carlisle, Copeland, Eden, and South Lakeland (including the Lake District National Park Authority) are jointly planning for approximately 1,900 new homes every year. This number, set out in recently adopted or draft plans, represents each Council’s assessments of its own housing need including growth aspirations around Carlisle (St Cuthbert’s Garden Village). In deciding these numbers, Cumbrian authorities have worked closely together and considered local issues and potential jobs growth.

In contrast, the Government’s proposed method is a national ‘top-down’ prescribed approach, which would slash the Cumbrian figure to around 650 new homes per year. Oddly, Barrow-in-Furness is not required to deliver a single new home; it would have to demolish homes if this was an acceptable political stance.

Is the Government’s estimate of housing need true, and if so, what are the implications?

The Government’s proposed method is based on trends in births, deaths, migration, and housing affordability. Crucially, it does not consider economic potential, or the effect recent migration trends can have on future projections. In Cumbria, this has a significant dampening effect. Some may see this as a good thing, but it could harm those seeking to get on the housing ladder, as well as the economy and investment in infrastructure across Cumbria.

Over the next 10 years, Cumbria is anticipated to lose over 230 people per year, which compares similarly to population increases nationally. To compound this issue, Cumbria’s population is expected to become increasingly dominated by older residents, with inhabitants over 65 set to account for 2 percent of the population compared to just 21 percent nationally. The combined effect of these trends is a reduction in the labour force, reducing the attractiveness of Cumbria as a place to set up and do business.

The economic future spelt out by the projections starkly contrasts with previous rates of jobs growth across Cumbria, with rates of up to 1 percent per annum experienced over recent years. It also runs counter to the aims of key projects and initiatives, such as the Nuclear New Build Project in West Cumbria, Barrow Waterfront, Carlisle Airport and the Borderlands Initiative. The Cumbria LEP strives for the area to be one of the fastest growing economies in the UK. According to the LEP it is investing £60 million in government funding through its ‘Growth Deal’ to accelerate economic growth, aiming to create 15,000 additional jobs by 2024. This paints a much brighter economic future for Cumbria, but without the required housing to attract and retain workers, it is unlikely to become a reality.

Constrained housing growth could also weaken investment in infrastructure and funds for already ‘cash-strapped’ councils. It is estimated that the reductions in housing numbers associated with the Government’s local housing needs method would reduce education spending by roughly £17 million over the next 10 years, based on contributions made by developers alone. Similarly, Council Tax receipts could be reduced by nearly £14 million over a 10-year period. These are strong incentives for the councils to seek higher rates of growth.

Political will needed

To ensure their economic ambitions are realised, the Cumbrian authorities need to be bold and ‘hold their nerve’ by setting aside the Government’s housing need assessment and sticking with their own assessments. Doing this will require joint working and robust evidence from all Cumbrian authorities. More importantly, it will require strong political will to ward off potential opposition. Whilst politicians may be tempted to bow to anti-development lobbyists for short-term political gains, the effect could condemn Cumbria to stagnation and economic decline.