Joy, anguish and confusion as Britain leaves the European Union

At 11pm on Friday, after three and a half years of fierce, sometimes ugly debate, the country left the European Union.

Maps, charts and headline statistics often obscure important truths. 

As a county, Cumbria voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU, with South Lakeland was an isolated island in a sea of pro-Brexit support on June 23, 2016.

As one of the country’s most strongly pro-Brexit cities, it would be tempting to assume there would be little anguish felt in Carlisle as the UK’s 47-year union with the EU came to an end.

But that is not the case. Even in the most ardently pro-leave parts of the country, there will be large numbers of people lamenting our official exit from the EU as a tragic rejection of opportunity and decades of progress.

One of these people will be Helen Davison, Carlisle City Council’s only Green Party councillor and an enthusiastic believer in the European project.

It is exactly this strength of feeling that she hopes those celebrating Brexit as a victory will not ignore.

“I hope people let go of this ‘just get over it’ mindset,” said Dr Davison.

“You don’t just get over something this major – it’s a serious change that a lot of people feel as a kind of grief.”

This could not be further from how David Walker saw the historic moment. 

As the Brexit Party candidate for Workington in December’s General Election, it is perhaps not surprising that he said the arrival of Brexit day made him feel “joy, but above all, relief”.

The relief he feels is a result of the “narrow escape” from a coalition of anti-Brexit voices in their three-and-a-half-year attempt to “stop Brexit”.

“We’ve seen Westminster respond to the Brexit issue in an extremely anti-democratic way, ensuring that those who wanted to frustrate democracy had the power to,” he said.

“In fact, that became one of my key important motivations in continuing this fight for Brexit.

“It became so important to band together and fight back against those who strove to frustrate the democratic process and prevent us from leaving the EU.”

Carlisle’s Conservative Party MP, John Stevenson, agreed that this was the final step in a long road towards implementing the “will of the people”.

“We’re implementing the democratic decision of the British people, and that is extremely important,” he said.

“Now we’ve got to embrace the opportunities Brexit will present and ensure Britain is a success, which I have every confidence it will be.”

Julia Aglionby, chairwoman of the pro-European Union group Cumbria For Europe, acknowledged that the General Election indicated there was no significant appetite for a second Brexit referendum, and that the official uncoupling of the UK from the EU must take place. 

But she said she fears it will be the first step down a road towards a new political reality that would be most punishing to the least well-off in Cumbria.

“Europe provided a common standard on how we would treat people, whether that’s in the workplace or on air quality, or how we look after nature,” she said.

“Outside of the EU, how are we going to protect those standards? 

“Who will have the greatest sway in deciding our future direction as a country? Will it be our communities in Cumbria or will it be the interests of big business who do not necessarily have our best interests at heart?

“The European Union has helped protect that longer term perspective that goes beyond the shorter-term focus of national politics we are all too used to seeing in Westminster.”

Professor Aglionby sees a darker possible future for Cumbria outside the EU. 

But Ukip’s two-time Carlisle candidate and national executive committee member Fiona Mills sees nothing but a brighter world of opportunity opening up to the country.

“This is not the clean break most leavers voted for, but it is a very good start,” she said.

“Soon people will start observing the benefits that regaining our independence will bring.  

“We are already seeing prominent remain organisations backtracking on their previous forecasts of doom and major companies are pledging investment in the UK.”

The two views could not be more different. Contrasting vastly differing views on Brexit side-by-side highlights perhaps one of the biggest problems with the entire Brexit debate: the issue of why predictions of the final outcome differ so widely.

It is clear that those seeking certainty on what the post-Brexit era will look like are likely to be disappointed.

Uncertainty over Brexit is what Adam Day, managing director of the Farmer Network, a non-profit organisation supporting the agricultural industry, says is such a worry for Cumbrian farmers.

“So far, we’ve got very little detail from the Government on how the agricultural industry will look further into the future,” he said.

“The new funding and support system for the agricultural industry that is going to be put in place by the Government is still under construction.

“We are confident there will be support there, but we do not know exactly what that support will be.

“In the longer term, we just don’t know where we’re going to be in terms of agricultural policy – and that’s a great worry.”

Perhaps most critically, the greatest uncertainty comes from the fact that the historic departure is only the beginning of a much longer process as the UK begins the work of shaping our long-term relationship with Europe.

The countdown now begins to December 31 – the end of the transition period. 

If a final deal is not agreed by then, then there will be no deal – something many businesses say is a terrifying prospect.

Rob Johnston, the chief executive of Cumbria’s Chamber of Commerce explained: “Brexit Day was symbolic.

“The Withdrawal Agreement means that the UK will enter a transition period where we stay within the EU single market and customs union. It will be business as usual.”

“But if the UK hasn’t negotiated a new trading agreement with the EU by December 31, there will be major changes.”