A major new general election poll has predicted a tip towards Tory dominance in Cumbria.

National polling company YouGov has predicted the Conservatives could hold as many as five of the county’s six constituency seats following December 12 in its flagship election poll.

The poll says there is a very real prospect of a Labour wipeout – with Barrow and Furness touted as the most likely seat in the whole of the UK to turn blue. 

Conservative candidate Simon Fell is predicted to finish ahead by a stark 15 per cent in Barrow and Furness, held by Labour turned Independent MP John Woodcock who will not defend the seat.

John Stevenson in Carlisle and Trudy Harrison in Copeland are also tipped for comfortable victories in relatively marginal seats, while a runaway win is predicted for the tradintionalyl safe Conservative seat of Pentith and the Border.

Interestingly, the Tories are also predicted to win the Workington seat by a tiny one per cent, although YouGov has said the outcome is too close to call.

Should it ring true, it would end Sue Hayman’s, and Labour’s, hold of what has been a traditional red stronghold. 

The last Conservative MP was Richard Page, who won a by-election in 1976 only to be replaced by Labour’s Dale Campbell-Savours three years later.

The one non-Tory seat predicted is Tim Farron’s Westmorland and Lonsdale, in which he is projected to win – but not by a comfortable margin.

The former Liberal Democrat leader saw his majority cut from 8,172 to just 777 votes in the 2017 election – a margin that required a recount.

While polls predicting outcomes are published often in the run-up to general elections, this poll has attracted outsized attention due to its special mathematical modelling - called MRP - which when used in 2017 resulted in the only broadly correct prediction of the final election outcome.