Unemployment has risen in Cumbria, with 120 more claims made in November

According to the Office for National Statistics, there were 5,820 people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance or Universal Credit last month – a significant rise on the revised figures for October of 5,700.

The rise means that two per cent of Cumbria’s population is recorded as unemployed, up from 1.9 per cent.

Carlisle bore the brunt of the countywide rise – the biggest seen during 2018.

A total of 1,185 claims were made in November representing 1.8 per cent of the population – up 70 from the 1,115 (1.7 per cent) made during the previous month.

Copeland saw the number of claims increase by 40, from 1,290 (3.1 per cent) in October to 1,330 (3.2 per cent) last month.

Eden saw an increase of 20 – from 290 (0.9 per cent) to 310 (1 per cent) – and South Lakeland a rise of 10 – from 320 (0.5 per cent) to 330 (0.6 per cent).

Meanwhile, Allerdale and Copeland both witnessed falls.

There were 15 fewer claims made in Barrow, which saw the total fall from 975 (2.4 per cent) in October to 960 (2.3 per cent) in November. In Allerdale, there was a fall of five to 1,705 (2.9 per cent).

Shane Byrne, Cumbria partnership manager at Jobcentre Plus, said the rise was partly down to the shift to Universal Credit, which meant that some people would be recorded in the figures despite being in some form of work.

The controversial Universal Credit system has now been rolled out across all of Cumbria’s Jobcentre Plus offices, after Barrow went live last week. It means that while some are now fully on Universal Credit, others are still claiming “legacy” benefits, which include Jobseekers Allowance along with working tax and child tax credits.

“Universal credit is now live across Cumbria after a two-year rollout, and this rise is partly down to that,” he said.

“Universal Credit it to simplify things and get help to the people who need it most, which can mean that there are people working quite a lot of hours and earning quite a lot of money, who are claiming. Nationally, there will be around 22 million people claiming Universal Credit by 2023.”

Mr Byrne stressed that the outlook for Cumbria remained positive, with 1,816 jobs posted during November.

“The labour market in Cumbria is looking quite positive at the moment,” he said.

“For a more accurate picture for the county, you have to look at he figures for Allerdale, which has had Universal Credit for two years now.

“We are still seeing recruitment issues in some sectors, particularly in healthcare. We don’t know what Brexit will bring, and what may happen in the nuclear sector after what has happened there (with Moorside). But, of course we hope those jobs will come.”

Nationally, unemployment also rose during the period between August and October. There was an increase of 20,000 compared to the previous three months (May to July), taking the total to 1.38 million. However, the figure was 49,000 lower compared to the same period in 2017.

Meanwhile, employment continues to rise. During August to October, there were an estimated 32.48 million people in work, 79,000 more than for May to July 2018 and 396,000 more than for a year earlier.

Senior statistician at the Office for National Statistics, Matt Hughes said: “The employment rate has continued to rise in the most recent three months, returning to a joint record high, boosted by an increase in full-time workers.

“There was a corresponding fall in the ‘inactivity rate’ – the proportion of people neither working or looking for a job – while the unemployment rate was virtually unchanged.

“Real earnings are now growing faster than any time since around the end of 2016.”

Ian Brinkley, acting chief economist at the CIPD, the professional body for HR and people development, said the latest figures showed that the labour market was “getting steadily tighter”.

“This implies that labour and skill shortages will increase and recruitment and retention may become more challenging,” he said.

“However, these pressures stand to significantly increase if the current uncertainty over Brexit deters more migrants from coming to the UK and net migration from the EU continues to fall.

“Wage growth has edged up slightly driven by the finance and business service sector. Real earnings have also strengthened. Historically, real wage growth and productivity growth have gone hand-in-hand, but it remains to be seen if rising real wages will also be reflected in better productivity figures in the months ahead, given the current Brexit crisis.”